Part 2 in the "Why I won't invest in..." series...
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
This time: The Metaverse.
A lot of projects pitch as a key roadmap point that they will "integrate with the Metaverse"...
I tend to stay away from those that make this a central claim, however.
Here's why.
👇 pic.twitter.com/FuXIx5tivj
I briefly mentioned Metaverse plays in my Roadmaps guide. https://t.co/yT7U7PXlt2
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
The TL;DR still stands: "Metaverse", at least the exciting version of it, is just too far away to be investable.
If you're interested, here's my detailed reasoning about this.
First, a disambiguation. The "metaverse" is, in a way, already here. It's Twitter, Discord, and even Email and Facebook, maybe Minecraft and Fortnite. All those apps are part of today's Metaverse.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
But when NFT projects pitch Metaverse integration, they mean something else.
Their source is Ready Player One or, before that, Snow Crash. Both fantastic novels (though highly dystopian worlds none of us want to live in, really).
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
That sort of Metaverse typically involves some sort of VR experience where you just get to exist in another world. pic.twitter.com/kAT8izjXei
Now, that stuff is really cool and I would love to experience it. And I think I will get to experience it. I think it's almost inevitable that over time VR will come to be a dominant aspect of our lives.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
The problem is: over how much time.
Let's get a sense of scale here.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
In NFT-land, things happen on a scale of days, weeks... maybe months if they really need a while.
A VR Metaverse is coming, I'm fairly sure... on a timescale of decades.
But, swombat, what about the Oculus Rift 2 and all the money Facebook is plonking into their VR stuff Decentraland and Sandbox and all those cool things people are building?
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Aren't those the VR Metaverse that's just around the corner?
No.
Just because a large corporation (or even a multitude of smaller ones) are plonking $$$ into a technology doesn't mean it's just around the corner.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
If you want a contemporary example, consider that self-driving cars have been just around the corner (!) for a decade too.
Some technologies have a lot of dependencies to sort out, both technical and social. And "VR Metaverse" is one of them.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
On the technical side, yes, we've made advances, and what today's VR headsets can do is amazing. But we're still far away from something ppl might use all day.
Every single person I know who has used VR finds it difficult to use for more than an hour or two. VR Metaverse incorporates an assumption that we'll want to spend all day in those virtual worlds, that they will become our identities, how we interact with each other.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
But that's not happening with tech that makes most people nauseous after an hour or two and requires a gaming rig plugged in to have a decent experience.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
I think it's even plausible that VR as currently imagined is a dead end, at least in the near future.
Facebook wouldn't be the first company to make a big technological bet and get it totally wrong.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
I don't think that the next step towards VR Metaverse is virtual online world. I think that step is *at least ten years away*.
Instead, I believe what will happen next, and need to become socially established before there is any chance of VR worlds becoming a thing, is:
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Augmented Reality.
If we get ppl used to having AR headsets on all day long... then I see VR as a possible next step. pic.twitter.com/JCgvJsFCrr
So I'm quite hopeful that the rumours of Apple developing some kind of AR headset that maybe they will release this year might get us a step or two further. It'll be pretty cool to be able to stick a QR code on the wall and see my NFTs there too.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
If Apple releases some stylish but effective AR glasses that make all the right compromises, the first gen will be super expensive, as usual. Then the 2nd gen, next year, or maybe the year after, might become more affordable and better.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Then over the following couple of years, AR might start to get broad adoption, like Smart Phones did after Apple launched the iPhone. It took a few years back then and it'll take a few years this time round too.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
By the way, if you've read this far, you might enjoy reading more of my threads on https://t.co/X91GS2YlJN . Also, you can sign up to get the threads by email - just click on my profile and register there! I also publish daily nft market health stats: https://t.co/tuySNnEcMB
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Another dependency for full metaverse will be input devices. Maybe something clever can be done with gloves, but the current system with location-aware joypads is... well, great for gaming, and maybe for art, and not much else.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
With NFTs, we may have solved *one* of the technosocial dependencies for the VR Metaverse: digital property, in a persistent, social consensus that's outside of the control of any government or corporation.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
But the others are still a long way away.
If AR adoption goes well and speedily, and we posit some sort of input tech that works well enough, about 5 years from now, the ground might be ripe and the technology ready for those smart glasses to have a "full VR" mode that some people might actually use frequently.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Then something worth calling a VR Metaverse might begin to appear.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Five years to get ready to begin - if we're optimistic.
I suspect it will probably take a lot longer, but I don't see it taking less than five years.
Now, as I tweeted a few days ago, we humans tend to overestimate what can be done in one year, and underestimate what can be done in ten years.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
This is particularly the case with tech, which has compound effects that create exponential progress.
So I'm quite willing to accept that maybe in ten years, most of us *will* be spending all our time in VR, even if that seems outlandish and impossible from today's perspective.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
But it's not happening in 2022, or 2023, or 2024, or 2025.
So... let's go back to NFT projects.
NFT projects have only existed for a year, really. Less than that. BAYC is the pioneer of the business-as-NFT-project model.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
As people keep rightly repeating, most of the NFT projects in existence today are going to zero in the mid term.
In NFT terms, that means in the next 2y.
I believe some NFT projects will keep going. I hope they're the ones I've invested in. I think the right ones will grow in value, even. None of the ones I've picked depend on any sort of integration with a VR Metaverse that does not and cannot exist today.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
If a project pitches VR Metaverse integration as a central value point, I think they're either naively overestimating the progress that will happen in the next year or two, or overestimating their own perseverance in the face of adversity. Or they're just planning to rug anyway.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
The word "Metaverse" gets people excited. It smells of the future. It sounds cool.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
And at this point in time, when named as a key feature of an NFT project, it is just vapourware, undeliverable, always receding on the horizon. pic.twitter.com/JLHRE8cttA
I don't want to invest in projects where the founders are deluded or dishonest, and from my perspective, if the founders claim that some sort of VR Metaverse will have an impact on their project before 2025... they are either deluded or dishonest.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
Of course I could be wrong about all this. If so, I might miss on a big trend. Maybe. Even if I am wrong about the fundamental tech, projects would still need to make a case that their somewhat amateurish efforts would actually be important in this future Metaverse. pic.twitter.com/oN434KEXom
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
That said, those investing in Metaverse projects... even if the VR Metaverse does spring upon us for Christmas 2022... are you so sure that <your favourite project> will be a part of it? Like P2E, there are a lot of projects clamouring for a spot in this insubstantial future.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
There is only one "Metaverse" that projects can rely on right now.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
It's made of Twitter, Discord, a few other basic social media tools... It's thoroughly centralised, web2 tech. It will hopefully evolve towards less centralisation, and projects betting on that sound good to me.
TL;DR: VR Metaverse is at least 5 years away, more likely 10. Any project that has VR Metaverse integration as a critical utility and doesn't have 5-10 years of runway is deluded or dishonest.
— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
gm & gl pic.twitter.com/aaHM1lVWTa