Let's take down another sacred monster in the NFT space.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 22, 2022
It's the best of things, and it's the worst of things.
Mostly, the word is waved around as a trap for fools. Sometimes those waving it genuinely believe it means something. Often they are wrong.
Ppl don't really get how relevant transactional privacy is to them.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 15, 2022
The usual examples (political donations) seem a bit unusual.
Let's have some concrete examples everyone can understand, why YOU, personally, will want sth like TornadoCash to anonymise ALL your transactions.
Time to weigh into this royalties conversation.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 14, 2022
Yes, I have a different take than most.
I think the whole conversation is based on false premises.
Apologies to all the deep and well reasoned philosophical arguments that have been presented, but I think they're all bunk.
The future of web3 is 100% TornadoCash.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 13, 2022
This is a battle that the US govt will lose, like it lost the last one on encryption, because code is speech and privacy is an important right.
I'm going to try and lay out this case in less than 10 tweets (Challenge Accepted!).
Let's debunk another Big Lie of the NFT space.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 10, 2022
"Invest in bluechips".
Anon, I'm here to tell you that there's no such thing, and if you try to follow that occasionally well-intentioned bit of advice...
YOU WILL GET REKT.
Let's look at some fucken data.
The Metaverse has nothing to do with 3D.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) August 8, 2022
The Metaverse doesn't look like Minecraft, Roblox, or Otherside.
The Metaverse doesn't need of VR/AR tech.
The Metaverse won't get you rich from buying artificially scarce land & cartoon jpegs.
You gotta invest in the right stuff.
What's the next meta?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) July 19, 2022
What does that even mean? What is a "meta"? How big is it? How long does it last? What impact does it have?
Everyone wants to know what the "next meta" will be, so they can invest in it early and, well, make money.
Is "meta" relevant to you?
What are NFTs?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) July 16, 2022
The right metaphor is worth a million words.
Explaining NFTs to people is hard. Most people, even those in the NFT space, barely begin to grasp the power of this technology.
Here's how I do it.
What sort of returns can we expect in the NFT space?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) June 13, 2022
What about in a loooong bear market? Is there any chance of making big multiples now?
Is it time to throw in the towel, give up, lick our wounds, move on to something else?
What's the worst thing a founder can do to their NFT project?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) May 10, 2022
The quick answer, "to rug it", is correct but also ambiguous. We don't have an agreed definition of "rugging", so ppl get lost in arguments about whether this or that was a rug, and lose sight of what matters. pic.twitter.com/1pmpXfEsGb
Every once in a while the meta changes.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) May 1, 2022
Catching the meta shifts early can pay off big.
Imagine beginning investing in the PFP craze in May last year.
Imho, the Yuga Labs Otherside debacle plays into the next meta shift.
Moonbirds marks a turning point in NFTs.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) April 18, 2022
It's not about @moonbirds_xyz specifically. It's about the whole market.
As an experienced startup person, I can see a pattern emerging here. It has some important implications for the future of NFTs.
Read on to find out more.
So you've landed a really great advisor for your project. They like you, they like the project, they're keen to help.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) March 31, 2022
Then... nothing much changes?
Making use of advisors is a skill in itself. Many get it wrong. Here's how to do it right. pic.twitter.com/JKtjgQHomT
Most PFP projects are securities.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) March 8, 2022
We, and the SEC/FCA, need to embrace this.
The sooner we do, the sooner we'll be on our way to revolutionising startup fundraising in a way that will fund more innovation in every area of life than we've ever seen.
How to invest better (or at least, more like a swombat)— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 26, 2022
Is it worth emulating my way of investing?
Well, that's up to you really. But I feel pretty good about it, and I get asked for advice by ppl on a regular basis.
And I think my track record is not too bad.
What are some good things to consider if you're building a project?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 18, 2022
I think we're still too early in the space to have a definitive list of patterns and anti-patterns, but I've been collecting ideas in a text file for a while.
If that's of interest, here are 16 of them...
Part 2 in the "Why I won't invest in..." series...— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 14, 2022
This time: The Metaverse.
A lot of projects pitch as a key roadmap point that they will "integrate with the Metaverse"...
I tend to stay away from those that make this a central claim, however.
Better smart contract design is, imho, one of the pillars of improving the NFT space in the coming year.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 12, 2022
Not only that, though, it can also be a powerful tool for improving the chances of success of your project.
This is another place where honest ppl's incentives align.
.@meta_angels is the first project to implement lending.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 10, 2022
I don't think it will be the last, because I think it's a very powerful mechanism that at the very least, most club-like projects should consider and probably implement.
I'm very unlikely to invest in two kinds of NFT projects:— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 8, 2022
- Anything involving P2E
- Anything involving "metaverse"
I find myself having to explain why over and over again on Discord, so... here's a thread, because I'm tired of repeating myself, lol.
NFTs can & should replace shares. But although they could replace them 1:1, they also enable much more creative ways of raising funding and sharing growth with early backers.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) February 5, 2022
So I think a better way to put it is: NFTs should make share-based fundraising obsolete.
Stars have started buying into @BoredApeYC en masse. It started with Snoop Dogg (secretly), then Jimmy Fallon (publicly). By now Eminem, Paris Hilton, Neymar Jr, Bieber, etc.. have famously bought some BAYC.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 31, 2022
Does it mean BAYC is a good store of value? https://t.co/COMe2BgDwL
Anatomy of a long term investment— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 27, 2022
I minted 6 @crypto_coven witches at 0.05. Then I bought 6 more around 0.1. Then I derisked, and I'm now just waiting to see where they land. Currently they are ranging between 2-3 eth.
What was my thinking on this play?
I believe NFTs will replace shares as a primary mechanism of company funding, probably over the next 5 years.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 21, 2022
Because they're just better. There are teething issues, sure, but NFTs are just so superior, they will take over.
To make use of this knowledge... read on.
When discussing the NFT space with ppl I constantly have to mention it's currently full of scammers and outright criminals, who have no qualms about starting endless rounds of ponzis to basically steal money from people.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 17, 2022
But, I always add, this will change.
Why I don't like investing in hyped projects— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 13, 2022
I am a quadruple-outlier:
Most investors don't invest in startups.
Most startup investors don't invest in crypto.
Most crypto investors don't invest in NFT projects.
And... most NFT investors follow the hype.
Anatomy of a good whitelist flip— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 11, 2022
Yesterday, I minted a @pxquest adventurer for 0.125+gas and flipped it half an hour later for 0.6+gas.
In a bear market (which we're likely heading into), WL flips are one of the main ways to make money from trading.
So how do they happen?
Why is volume a good indicator to watch in NFTs?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 10, 2022
What moves the price of NFTs?
What is the fundamental behaviour and psychology behind those price shifts?
Let's break down the dynamics of NFT pricing a bit and figure out why.
One of the best features of web3 is the transparency. All in the open. No hiding.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 6, 2022
Or is it? Turns out it's easy to hide in plain sight, as anyone who's bought drugs with BTC knows.
And that's ok if ur a private person.
For influencers, we should demand better.
For the last few days, you can't throw a rock without hitting a youtuber talking about the amazing bull market we're in.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 5, 2022
But are we really in a bull market? And can we tell when it ends so we're not the last ones standing when the music stops?
Enter the Market Health Index.
As we open up 2022, what are some of the timeless wisdom we can keep from 2021 to avoid making the same mistakes again and again and again?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 4, 2022
Let's say you get a hot "alpha" tip for a great NFT project... how do you approach it in a sensible way to avoid getting burned?
Being doxxed *should* be more important in the NFT space. It would reduce the amount of scams.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) January 4, 2022
Also, being doxxed should be better understood. Many people claim to be doxxed, but actually aren't.
Let's have a look at when and why it matters and how to do it right.
What's the least plausible, yet most convincing pitch for an NFT project?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 29, 2021
Hint: it's so common that you've no doubt seen it many times.
It's vanishingly unlikely to work out. Yet it always works: it gets people excited.
You're probably vulnerable to it. And shouldn't be.
NFT Project mints. Either they're hyped, and the floor takes off, people flip, the project lives...or it's dead in the water and not worth looking at.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 22, 2021
No. There's another way. Let's talk about slow mints and why they make waaaaaaaaay more sense for most NFT projects.
If an NFT-backed online club is actually run honestly, with basic competence, and a decent vision, and starting roundabout now, it is very likely to succeed. I am extremely bullish on clubs that show certain characteristics...— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 13, 2021
(relevant read: https://t.co/kzuL1oQpmE )
The trap of Investrading:— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 7, 2021
"I'm going to trade this project. It's going well! I'll keep it because it's going to the moon! Yes! 10x! Fantastic! Awesome trade! Oh no, it's back to 1x. Damn, it's gone down now. But I'll wait, it'll go back up!"
Read on for how to avoid this.
WAGMI (or not) - but Making It in what? What is it we're early for?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 4, 2021
I invite you to look more broadly than "crypto trading" or "NFT projects" or whatever specific bit you're looking at, at the overall field. We're early for something currently loosely called "web3".
What is it?
I notice at least 3 different schools of trading NFTs in the @NFTLlama community. I call them: investing, trading, gambling.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) December 2, 2021
Splitting them up is helpful, because advice that applies to one doesn't necessarily apply to the other.
So what are they?
🧵/NFT Projects come with built-in magic: they can trigger creative explosions and supercharge them. But from what I've seen, most of them consistently fail to use their superpower.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 29, 2021
It's a big lost opportunity.
1/🧵— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 18, 2021
Let's talk roadmaps. And how they are mostly useless in their current form. And how every project has them and doesn't use them right!
Why? Because I'm tired of finding every project cargoculting roadmaps and missing the point of the exercise.
Maybe this thread will help.
🧵/🧵— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 24, 2021
Deciphering Roadmaps... a thread of mini-threads
This builds on https://t.co/PQc5ZkfQuU and https://t.co/4MUJJYCZ1Q .
Here's how to gauge the project even w/o them stating their vision clearly, based on their plans, and figure out if they have any sustainable utility.
1/🧵On evaluating NFT influencers and investors by the projects they talk about, in the web3 context.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 21, 2021
I want to build onto @Loopifyyy's thread earlier ( https://t.co/6Z7lOEjvqN ) and this concept of "hot potato" projects.
Everyone in NFTs knows those highly desirable projects.
If you want to be successful in NFTs, or any other fields, you need to learn to take care of yourself.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 30, 2021
Back when I got into startups there was also an unhelpful meme around that suggested you have to work 24/7 on your startup and abandon everything else.
Thread.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) October 14, 2021
Thanks to the awesome @0x12Y4N from @NFTLlama Discord for helping me see this.
HEADS UP. Most people in NFT-land believe something really important and really false.
Think gas is high because <x> and will go down? Think again.
Gas is never going down.
Here's why. https://t.co/mkMnIfkZOu
1/🧵Lately, I've been thinking about mints, NFT project finances, and how far short the NFT space currently falls from what it should be, given it is the spear-tip of web3 and the first impression many will have of the entire movement.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 16, 2021
It's pretty dire, really.
Are Club-like PFP/Avatar projects worth the excitement?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 15, 2021
Are they just a fad or here to stay?
Can they really deliver sustainable value? Can they be good investments?
Will they still exist in X years?
Yes. And here's why. (TL;DR: simple arithmetic)
When is the NFT bear market going to be over??— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 13, 2021
And more importantly... wen Lambo?
Nobody knows, of course, but here's a perspective that, while a little bleak, may also contain some hope and some possible alpha. It may not lead to Lambos, but who knows, it might...
Last week I reviewed @BoredApeYC from the pov of sustainable value ( https://t.co/0RgWfuWGbu ) - as outlined in this thread ( https://t.co/4MUJJYCZ1Q )— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 10, 2021
Is there a fundamentally different way to give value than BAYC, a different pattern?
Yes. Let's look at @robotosNFT .
Are Play to Earn games the future?— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 7, 2021
I don't think so. They're the past. PtE is not the future of gaming powered by web3. They're unsustainable as currently presented.
So before investing there, perhaps it's worth thinking about it a bit, same way that I examined NFTs.
Following my thread a couple of days ago ( https://t.co/4MUJJYCZ1Q ), I thought I'd try and analyse some projects for the non-Ponzi value they deliver to their investors.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 4, 2021
First in line is #BAYC . What do they give their investors that's not money from future investors?
Most NFT projects have by now cottoned on that they need to give "utility".— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) November 2, 2021
But most are getting this wrong and doing it in an unsustainable way that can't work.
Wanna be able to tell if the project you're looking at is sustainable? Read on.
There are only 4 ways to make a lot of money on NFTs:— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) October 31, 2021
1) Start a project that goes incredibly well (lottery)
2) Steal from your own project (rug)
3) Pump and dump schemes (scam)
4) Invest in the right projects (smarts)
Most projects are not #1 and don't intend to be #2.
Thread.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) October 29, 2021
So here's another anti-pattern that I see across many projects. It's also one that takes those projects quite close to a legal grey area where they might be shut down by SEC and FCA and other financial authorities.
I'm talking about "giving back to the community".
Thread.— Daniel Tenner (swombat.eth) (@swombat) October 28, 2021
What makes an NFT project special? What gives it the potential to grow to many multiples of the initial investment? Maybe to an infinite multiple, in some cases where the initial investment is 0?
And how are most projects doing it wrong rn?
Read on for my perspective.